SGT Multi-Crisis Analyzer

Advanced confrontation analysis with interventions, shocks, and comparative scenarios

Select Crisis Scenario

THRESHOLD (Θ)
0.520
🟢 STABLE
W_acc (DPP)
0.850
Acceptance
TIME / PHASE
0
Natural Decay
INTERVENTIONS
0
Active measures

External Shocks

Simulation Controls

SGT Policy Pathway

System Evolution

Equilibrium Predictions

NASHClassical Game Theory

Prediction

Regime survival via coercion is rational. Opposition symbolic resistance continues but cannot alter collapse.

Outcome

System persists in crisis indefinitely. No pathway to recovery predicted.

Empirical Validation

Current Mean Θ: N/A
Time in Crisis: 0 periods

SGT σₑSocietrics Equilibrium

Prediction

Coercion excluded once Θ > 1. Only 3-phase pathway admissible: Circuit Breaker → Structural Floor → Incentive Engine.

Outcome

Constructive Succession restores equilibrium. Sequential interventions required.

Empirical Validation

Trust Recovery: N/A%
Wealth Change: N/A%
Interventions Applied: 0

Key SGT Insights:

  • • Multi-Crisis Testing: Framework validated across Venezuela, Syria, Sudan scenarios
  • • External Shocks: Model handles sanctions, oil price collapse, humanitarian aid, migration waves
  • • Comparative Analysis: Run parallel scenarios to test intervention timing and sequencing
  • • Statistical Rigor: Mean Θ, max Θ, time-in-crisis, and recovery metrics quantify outcomes
  • • Nash Divergence: Classical theory fails when Θ > 1; SGT predicts pathway requirements
  • • Policy Actionable: Sequential phases prevent crisis lock-in that Nash cannot escape

Quick Start Guide:

  1. Select Crisis: Choose Venezuela, Syria, Sudan, or build custom scenario
  2. Apply Shocks: Test external disruptions (sanctions, oil collapse, etc.)
  3. Run Simulation: Watch natural decay path (no intervention)
  4. Apply SGT Pathway: Sequential interventions (Phase 1→2→3)
  5. Enable Comparison: Run second scenario with different intervention timing
  6. View Statistics: Compare mean Θ, recovery rates, time-in-crisis
  7. Export Data: Download CSV with full time series and intervention log